tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6321329750397667796.post3872351730756275141..comments2024-03-26T19:47:09.310+08:00Comments on Lao Ren Cha - 老人茶: We all know how this ends: a howl for Hong Kong and TaiwanJenna Lynn Codyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04032277820150000198noreply@blogger.comBlogger6125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6321329750397667796.post-40017673616695954352019-11-26T12:22:47.385+08:002019-11-26T12:22:47.385+08:00I guess they had no choice - although in theory th...I guess they had no choice - although in theory they had Hong Kong "in perpetuity", it was thought to be unviable without the New Territories, whose lease was just about to run out.johnraffhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09819895941181644060noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6321329750397667796.post-46262711674872950542019-11-12T17:48:27.623+08:002019-11-12T17:48:27.623+08:00Some policy wonks believed it - that was around th...Some policy wonks believed it - that was around the time The End of History came out - but they put faaaaaar too much faith in it. They really should have known better, especially when they pressed China a bit for more concrete democratic commitments and China shot back "Hong Kong is ours to deal with, not yours to make demands on" (or something like that) before the handover, and the Jenna Lynn Codyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04032277820150000198noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6321329750397667796.post-59846795878406956622019-11-12T16:20:36.764+08:002019-11-12T16:20:36.764+08:00"I don't know what the UK was thinking wh..."I don't know what the UK was thinking when it assumed that 50 years - or any number of years - would be an acceptable period of time..."<br /><br />Wasn't the general belief back then that there was no way the communist system could survive that long? That rising living standards (in the PRC) would automatically bring democracy?johnraffhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09819895941181644060noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6321329750397667796.post-44411412305698741252019-07-16T11:51:23.134+08:002019-07-16T11:51:23.134+08:00Oh, when it comes to Hong Kong I quite agree: the ...Oh, when it comes to Hong Kong I quite agree: the "world" won't move a finger to help. When it comes to Taiwan, I guess the possibility that the US could respond militarily is enough to hold China back, for now. If a president signalled that the US wouldn't go all out to defend Taiwan, it might be game over for the island. Ji Xianghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03406727999722525339noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6321329750397667796.post-7271307675668724412019-07-11T17:58:07.735+08:002019-07-11T17:58:07.735+08:00I'm not mentioning it because I don't kno...I'm not mentioning it because I don't know that it really matters. The US is not actually obligated to defend militarily - the dizzying arrays of acts, communiques, assurances etc. are deliberately ambiguous as to what the US's actual obligations are. It is possible to interpret them as the US supporting a peaceful resolution but not committing to military intervention in the event Jenna Lynn Codyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04032277820150000198noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6321329750397667796.post-20839790702714345282019-07-11T17:17:36.052+08:002019-07-11T17:17:36.052+08:00You're not mentioning an important fact: the C...You're not mentioning an important fact: the CPC won't start a war if they think there is a decent chance of losing it. Losing a war in front of the whole world is the one thing that would seriously dent their popularity at home, even to the point of them losing power.<br /><br />The US is forced to intervene to defend Taiwan from invasions by an Act of Congress. Right now it is clear Ji Xianghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03406727999722525339noreply@blogger.com