It doesn't matter if they're locals or immigrants -- more than ever, just about everyone I know in Taiwan is worried about a Chinese invasion. It's always been a question pushed to the far back of our minds: might it happen? If so, when and how? What will I do? Do I need an emergency plan?
The United States has a spotty record in global leadership, and that's putting it kindly. As an American, I'd argue that we've done more harm than good on the whole. However, abdicating that role in favor of screaming matches with world leaders, annexation threats against our closest allies, Nazi salutes, gutting our own government, conspiracy theory screaming, rape, felony convictions, arbitrary detention and deportation, other assorted screaming and low-budget car commercials has handed some of the other worst people in the world an unobstructed path to their own form of global domination.
In Taiwan, that's terrifying. Like it or not (and I mostly do not), the US is one of Taiwan's closest strategic partners despite the lack of formal recognition of Taiwan's statehood. The guy many people thought would be good for Taiwan in 2016 based on one phone call, some anti-China rhetoric and a few appointments of terrible people who happen to support Taiwan is now looking like...well, not a great bet.
It's got a lot of us wondering what's in store for Taiwan, when our major strategic partner has not only become unreliable, but seems to have brain-hemorrhaged itself out of any sort of international stewardship. Since the 1990s if not earlier, and especially since escalating its annexationist rhetoric, the Chinese government can be reasonably assumed to operate under three assumptions:
1.) The ultimate goal vis-a-vis Taiwan is annexation.
2.) It is preferable for this to happen without war, i.e. convincing the people of Taiwan to accept unification by any means necessary, including political and media interference.
3.) If annexation without war is not possible, war is on the agenda once China believes it can win fairly easily.
When Ukraine made a strong showing against Russia, China was very obviously watching both the Ukrainian resistance and global support amid the crumbling of Russian assumptions that this would be an 'easy' war and quick victory. Many of us felt a mixed sense of hope and foreboding: the buoy was Russia getting bogged down in Ukraine, showing that China might not have an easy time in Taiwan. The ballast was a global focus on not provoking China, rather than ensuring the CCP would not even be able to start such a war, along with general ignorance regarding how deep China's influence operations in Taiwan really go:
Taiwan’s rugged terrain makes the country a defender’s paradise. If the Taiwanese people fight like Ukrainians, even a mighty PLA landing force would likely flail and be unable to kill its way into Taipei. With this in mind, CCP agents are working overtime to weaken resolve and soften up the “human terrain” of the future battlefield.
To enfeeble their victims, the CCP’s spy services, the shadowy Ministry of State Security (MSS) and PLA Liaison Bureau, are carrying out a sweeping campaign of covert operations. Their goal is to eat away at the Taiwanese government, military, and society from within. If their strategy achieved total success, they could subvert and overturn Taiwan’s democracy, leaving the occupation force to confront a short guerrilla war and American trade sanctions.
But even if the CCP’s dream scenario is unreachable, Beijing’s undercover operatives have already seduced, entrapped, and corrupted a sufficient number of opinion leaders to minimize a sense of crisis and pour cold water on public demands for action. Needed political and military reforms in both Taipei and Washington continue to be delayed.
“Let’s not forget the importance of one of the main targets of MSS influence operations: scholars, commentators, and non-governmental observers of China,” said Alex Joske, author of Spies and Lies: How China’s Greatest Covert Operations Fooled the World. “The degree of obliviousness and recklessness with which some of these people have treated the CCP is astounding.”
The distressing reality is that the CCP has an army of secret agents dripping poison into hearts and minds, and they have already been effective at making some seemingly common-sense policy changes appear unthinkable.
It's not just the media, and it's not just the KMT: that whole Ko Wen-je wave? A lot of that was China-backed. It runs deep, and Taiwan might be in big trouble if it doesn't counter these operations more effectively.
Even in 2023 when there was still hope that the world wouldn't be mostly run by fascist dictatorships, this was distressing. The writer of these chilling paragraphs? Ian Easton, a well-respected analyst, had been talking for years about how difficult it would be for China to actually pull off an invasion of Taiwan. But since 2020, even he's been saying a crisis might be on the horizon.
That war hasn't come quite yet, but the situation has gotten noticeably worse. The KMT/TPP-led legislature is full of traitors and bought-and-paid-for CCP agents, including the speaker (old DUI hand Han Kuo-yu) and caucus whip (convicted criminal Fu Kun-chi). Pro-China influencers retain audiences, although one of the worst offenders is losing her spousal residence permit over it. This problematic case, of course, has given the KMT the ammunition it needs to continue its attacks on the DPP as being 'fascist' and 'anti-democracy' -- which is quite the projection, considering which party oppressed democracy in Taiwan for generations.
The KMT even feels emboldened enough to propose a referendum that would seek public consent for bringing back Martial Law. Of course, if anyone would know how to conduct Martial Law in Taiwan, it would be the party that did so for the better part of the last century, but even I, a long-time KMT-hater, was shocked at their lack of remorse over their own history by proposing a sequel. There may be no constitutional court to stop it as the KMT is trying to gut that too. Cutting budgets that directly impact defense, especially the submarine budget, is another terrifying move. China seems very interested in Taiwan's indigenous submarine program, which means it's crucial.
On the China side, if anyone thought they were all talk and no game on invading Taiwan, the building of specialized barges for amphibious attack, presumably against Taiwan, they might want to sit down. This development should not be downplayed: if China will attack when it thinks it can win, it's obviously playing to win. Taiwan no longer seems to be a rhetorical device to them, something to be shouted about in speeches for effect and not much more. This is not a response to US threats or warmongering because the US is too wrapped up in its own self-destruction to warmonger much -- it's as simple as it looks on its face: we don't know when, but China is intending to invade Taiwan.
On the US side, all I can do is sigh. President Rapist and his tiny creeper screaming at President Zelenskyy was worrisome, yes. Blaming Zelenskyy for "starting the war" (fact check: Russia started the war, not Ukraine) should be chilling to anyone in Taiwan: if these jokers can DARVO the victim in Russia's invasion and say they started it, why wouldn't they do the same after a Chinese invasion? Honestly, they'd probably snark about how Taiwan shouldn't have been wearing such a short skirt if she didn't want it.
What scares me even more is President Rapist's own remarks on Canada.
"The only thing that makes sense is for Canada to become our cherished fifty-first state" sounds a lot like the CCP's "Reunification with the motherland is inevitable", that it's the inevitable course of history and the only reasonable outcome for Taiwan.
Threatening Canada with further tariffs, which of course don't work as President Rapist seems to think they do, and shaking his ugly little fist in the general direction of the Canadian economy absolutely echo the ongoing CCP attempts to tank the Taiwanese economy and thus demoralize the people into accepting China's "inevitable" plans.
Calling Prime Minister Trudeau "Governor" is basically the same play as China insisting on calling the Taiwanese president anything but "president", and saying it's a "nasty country" to deal with (may I remind you, he's talking about Canada. Again, Canada) are echoes of China screeching that the Taiwanese government and the DPP in particular are the troublemakers and not open to dialogue, which some people believe despite it being a lie without even a kernel of truth to ground it.
I'm not even going to get into his remarks on Palestine and kicking everyone out of Gaza. That's just too depressing. It does show, though, that the current administration doesn't care at all about human populations, homes or lives.
If Taiwan's closest strategic partner is talking about Canada in more or less the same way China talks about Taiwan, blames Ukraine for Russia's war the way China blames Taiwan for what China wants to do, and is absolutely gutting the US government both domestically and in terms of international diplomacy and outreach, what kind of strategic partner do we even really have? President Rapist and Chancellor Musk lead a gang of idiot thugs for sure, but are they even a gang of thugs who'll beat up their allies' enemies? Doubtful.
Do they even understand the strategic importance of Taiwan? Also doubtful, as they appear to have a child's understanding of international affairs, geostrategy and the global semiconductor industry.
After Rapey D and the Roofie Crew abandoned Ukraine, Europe began to show greater support to one of their own. That's fantastic, but if the same thing happens to Taiwan, will its neighbors step up in the same way? Japan might as it faces similar strategic concerns, but otherwise I'm not so sure.
What does that give China? Well, it gives it #3 on that list above: a window of opportunity to start a war that it might actually be able to win. If you're in Taiwan and this doesn't scare you, it should. It could quite literally ruin your life. It might well ruin mine. Without the income we need to sustain our lives in Taiwan and our only support network being friends, not family, I genuinely worry that economic pressure will render us homeless if we stay to contribute to the defense effort.
In Taiwan's defense (pun intended), everyone in government except the legislature seems to understand the scale of the threat. Civil defense and resilience are priorities, and have been for awhile. Military exercises are being extended. Improvements in military service training have been discussed since 2022, and I do happen to know it's a priority: the government is aware that the old approach to mandatory service, which was mostly marching around, sweeping offices and chanting slogans, is not useful.
Crucially, despite China's attempts to influence Taiwanese public opinion, most Taiwanese still identify as solely Taiwanese, almost nobody identifies as only Chinese, and only a minority identify as both. As of 2024, those numbers are still going strong. Whatever you're seeing on Dcard or some talking head told you on TVBS, it's not really true: Taiwan doesn't see itself as part of China, and that doesn't look poised to change.
The US may be a lost cause in just about every other way, but on Taiwan there are some faint rays of hope. Joint efforts in military and naval training are ongoing. Taiwanese representatives absolutely travel to the US frequently to do their best to work with President Rapist's administration as well as key state governments. There is no way that TSMC's announcement of massive further investment in the United States wasn't the result of some high-level discussions with government officials -- I don't know that for a fact, but it's the only logical conclusion.
Most importantly, I hate Marco Rubio in every other respect, and he supports Taiwan for all the wrong reasons, but he does support Taiwan. I can't say I'm angry about the State Department changing its public wording on Taiwan policy. The line about 'opposing Taiwan independence' never needed to be there, as Taiwan is already independent. Avoiding provocation with China was never a reasonable goal, as they'll always find something to be 'provoked' by. And yet, President Rapist has a history of firing officials who stand up to him, and his Most Divorced Weird Loser Nazi henchman has been clear that he thinks Taiwan is part of China. I'm not sure which horrible person is going to win out regarding Taiwan policy, but it's worth keeping an eye on.
I hate the idea of Taiwan continuing to work closely with a country currently run by fascists (if government officials and pseudo-officials are giving Nazi salutes and arresting dissidents while ignoring court rulings, that government is fascist). I'd love for Taiwan to be able to defend itself to the point that China has no option but to take invasion permanently off the table.
For now, though, Taiwan can't afford to ignore world affairs, and it certainly can't disavow President Rapist -- the world's most unreliable felon.
China knows that. It sees how weak the US is making itself, and I do truly fear that something terrible is coming.
Worst of all, every time I say this to friends of mine who Know Things, they nod and look sad, or admit they're worried too.
16 comments:
"The KMT/TPP-led legislature is full of traitors and bought-and-paid-for CCP agents, including the speaker (old DUI offender Han Kuo-yu) and caucus whip (convicted criminal Fu Kun-chi)."
Interesting take. But somehow, you've overlooked some very important points.
First, the current legislature is a result of the last election. In many countries, there is a second round of voting, ensuring that the president is backed by more than 50% of voters. If you don't recall, let me remind you that a majority (60%) of voters actually opposed the DPP.
Second, Taiwanese society is not homogeneous. It consists of Taiwanese, Hakka, Aboriginals, and Chinese. Perhaps some of these people support unification? Why label those with different opinions as traitors just because they don't align with the "official" narrative?
Lastly, during President Ma's tenure, a large segment of Taiwan’s population experienced economic prosperity. Taiwan’s tourism industry flourished due to millions of visitors from China. Many Taiwanese worked in China and sent money back home. At one point, approximately 400,000 Taiwanese were employed across the Taiwan Strait. Do the math—what percentage of Taiwan's total workforce does that represent? Now, try to guess why everything changed after President Tsai took office. A hint: it wasn’t because of COVID.
So, since we value freedom and democracy, perhaps we should allow people to think for themselves rather than just parroting green propaganda.
"First, the current legislature is a result of the last election. In many countries, there is a second round of voting, ensuring that the president is backed by more than 50% of voters. If you don't recall, let me remind you that a majority (60%) of voters actually opposed the DPP."
-- Opposing the DPP doesn't mean one has to support the KMT, the two-party system only makes it seem that way. Anyway, just because the KMT won a plurality in the legislature doesn't mean that Han, Fu, Ma Wen-jun and others aren't CCP collaborators. Both can be true! It's unfortunate that their supporters either don't know or don't care that they voted for traitors, but they did. These people want to end democracy, the same way President Rapist is trying to do in the US. He was also elected. He's also wrecking the government. The KMT won a plurality and I'm not saying they should be kicked out (though I hope the worst of them are indeed recalled, which is also a democratic process). But we cannot and should not abide traitors and convicted criminals.
-- "Second, Taiwanese society is not homogeneous. It consists of Taiwanese, Hakka, Aboriginals, and Chinese. Perhaps some of these people support unification? Why label those with different opinions as traitors just because they don't align with the "official" narrative?"
Straw man -- I never said Taiwanese society was homogenous. I never called for any specific narrative. I never said Hoklo was the only kind of Taiwanese. In fact, there are also SE Asians, Chinese spouses and others who've become citizens.
We already know most people do not support unification. Some do, because in a democratic society there will be a variety of opinions. But polls pretty much always say that most do not. Even the status quo poll shows that unification is not popular, and I quoted an identity poll (which asks about being "Taiwanese", not "Hoklo" -- so it includes all kinds of Taiwanese). For more on this you are welcome to read the data from NCCU Election Study Center, just about any other polling organization, or the work of Nathan Batto, who blogs at Frozen Garlic.
"Lastly, during President Ma's tenure, a large segment of Taiwan’s population experienced economic prosperity."
-- Yeah, people who were already rich got richer because wealthy businessmen (they are almost all men) pushed Ma and Siew toward prioritizing economics over politics, under the false presumption that doing so would not cause China to try to use the economy to force Taiwan into submission. This is well-documented, and there are official organizations of these wealthy businessmen who openly engage in this sort of political pressure. Well...some actually did know this would happen, particularly Ma, but they wanted it.
You know who else benefited? "Whole dragon" companies owned by Chinese interests benefiting off of Chinese tourism, but almost none of that money went to Taiwan.
For middle-class people, they didn't "experience economic prosperity" -- a lot of industry got hollowed-out and sent to China, and to continue to earn money, many Taiwanese felt they had to move to China. So this is nonsense.
"Taiwan’s tourism industry flourished due to millions of visitors from China."
-- That was actually terrible. Taiwanese industries, as above, did not make a lot of money from it. Chinese businesses and the already wealthy sure did, while life in Taiwan got worse as mobs of Chinese tourists crowded up every nice place.
"Many Taiwanese worked in China and sent money back home."
- Yeah, and a lot of them didn't want to, they felt they HAD to. They often didn't like China or living there. You're just describing the hollowing-out of the Taiwanese economy and Taiwanese jobs being funneled to China. That's bad!
We don't know how many people actually worked in China, because most of the numbers are random estimates. But I do not consider Taiwanese jobs being sent to China to be a good thing. Good for the economy = jobs in Taiwan.
"Now, try to guess why everything changed after President Tsai took office. A hint: it wasn’t because of COVID."
-- Yeah, the economy was actually pretty strong in the Tsai years, even considering COVID. Certainly, Taiwanese jobs were more stable than under Ma and Taiwan was a better place to live because all those Chinese tourists weren't clogging the trains, roads and leisure spots.
"So, since we value freedom and democracy, perhaps we should allow people to think for themselves rather than just parroting green propaganda."
-- Sure, but that does not extend to actually selling out democracy, which is what unification represents. Not even the bluest person believes Taiwanese democracy would survive under Chinese rule. They just don't care and are willing to sell it out.
As for democracy and freedom, yeah, that's why we have a DPP president, but a KMT plurality. Let's see what happens with the recalls.
Nobody is saying people shouldn't be able to vote for bad candidates. But it's my freedom of speech to say that those candidates are bad.
As for you, maybe you should quit parroting blue propaganda.
We also know from economic data that the tourism industry in Taiwan doesn't contribute a lot to the economy in general and the bump from cheap, low-quality tours from China (which most were) wasn't very significant. It was absolutely not a boon to the economy, and for whatever benefit it provided, it made life in Taiwan worse.
I'm happy that era is tourism is over. I'd like to find a way to welcome back Chinese tourists in a more sustainable way, not through a multi-pronged plan to force Taiwanese to accept a move towards unification that we know they don't support.
I'll also add that if Ma did such a great job, then the KMT would have won the next election (in 2016) but they lost in a landslide. If he'd done a fantastic job in his first term, he would have won his second by a bigger margin...he won, but by a fairly modest margin compared to Tsai's wins, if I remember correctly. If he'd done a good job in his second term, not only would Tsai have lost in 2016, but the Sunflowers would never have happened.
And if you're sticking to 400,000 Taiwanese workers in China (absolutely a bad thing, even if true), well, just as many people came out to support the Sunflowers. Ma was so bad, that that many people showed up to tell him off.
If Tsai had done such a bad job in her first term, she would have lost her second run. Or at the very least won by a thin margin, as Taiwan tends to re-elect leaders. Instead, she was re-elected by a landslide. And the guy nobody wanted in 2020 was made legislative speaker in 2024 -- which doesn't really sound like "voice of the people" but, hey, weirder things have happened.
The sad thing is, when you said, "his Most Divorced Weird Loser Nazi henchman", I had to click on the link to see just which - out of many - people in his administration you were referring to.
An attempted CCP takeover may look like this:
They present a credible threat to start a hot war across the strait, that both sides know would be very costly for both. Parallel to that, will be the offer of a peaceful capitulation, which CCP work within Taiwan has long been working toward every day.
What would the majority of Taiwan's population pressure their leaders to choose, if offered:
on one hand, an intense, bloody kinetic war, or at best, a long drawn-out guerilla war entailing privation from creature comforts, even including high-speed internet; or,
on the other hand, some sort of "two-systems" decorative treaty, but with all day to day creature comforts left intact.
Creature comforts, yes, but basic human rights and freedoms — no. Basic rule of law in that the people in power can’t just stomp all over you with no checks or balances, no. The right to speak up if you’re losing your human rights to a fascist regime? No. Basic freedom of the press? No.
So you are wrong: it wouldn’t be a decorative treaty. It would be annexation and democracy would die. You know this, so why underplay it?
Some people won’t realize how important they are until they’re gone (the US is starting to learn this). But thanks to what China did to Hong Kong, I do think a lot of Taiwanese understand that human rights are worth fighting for, and are definitely worth more than high-speed Internet. When you lose the right to speak up against the government, oh I dunno, disappearing dissidents, and the right to learn things beyond government censorship, you lose EVERYTHING. No creature comfort is worth that.
Frankly, war would suck but selling out Taiwan’s basic humanity to China would suck worse. Not my call to make, but I’d want to fight (and if it comes to that, I don’t intend to leave, though I worry about how to keep a roof over my head if so).
Don’t go interpreting everything as a contradiction to what you write. “Decorative treaty” was shorthand for an agreement that sounds good but is only superficial; I think nearly everyone reading this blog would know it would not actually guarantee human rights.
Taiwan winning a kinetic conflict would depend on its population holding out while it and its allies exact damage on China. What I call into question is the toughness of the Taiwanese population *in general* to bear the ugly costs of war, including loss if life and limb all around oneself, and potential destruction of all they’ve built, on top of privation from the daily comforts they enjoy today. It would include shortages of food, water and basic medical care, and watching save-able people slowly die. I, and I’m guessing you as well, have never had to endure such situations first-hand.
Yes, there may exist a hard core of believers in Taiwan democracy who would be able to tolerate brutal war conditions, and props to them. But would they be able to convince sufficient numbers of compatriots to maintain long-term allegiance and fight for the hard-core cause, in the midst of war conditions mentioned above?
That’s where the “decorative” treaty comes in. It has to look enticing enough, compared to the alternative, so that people will gamble on accepting it. And it doesn’t have to be the “hard core” that capitulates, just a sufficient number of people who can override them. I’m pointing out that internal disputes, such as mutinies, are an inherent part of war. And I’m questioning the cohesiveness among Taiwanese to put up an effective, coordinated resistance, whether the conflict be short and intense, long and drawn out, or both.
Some may favor other approaches, such as capitulating sooner, even despite their mistrust of any treaty being honored, and then engaging in a longer clandestine struggle for democratization of all China. That’s just one example. The main question I ask here is: How united would Taiwan’s population remain as a war drags on? The relative attractiveness of various options will evolve as a war unfolds.
Fair enough, you're right about trying to sell something that seems enticing. But you'd be surprised, the kinds of comments I get -- the ones who really are opposed to my perspective tend to leave such rude comments that I don't publish them, but as you'll see above from that "Abc" person, I'll occasionally publish one just so I can refute it, or let it through because it's a different perspective but not rude or trolling.
I do have to say, I think before 2019 and definitely before 2014, China might've gotten away with this kind of treaty. But now Taiwan knows it wouldn't actually be decorative -- they'd substantially lose their rights and way of life, and there would be no way to get them back. I don't think many people are so ignorant that they actually believe becoming part of China and struggling for democratization in China would be a fruitful or even possible path -- one would have to have drunk quite a bit of Kool-Aid to actually think that's viable. Though it's true that not everyone opposed to the CCP is opposed to Taiwan being part of China. (Those who are aren't interested in struggling for democracy for "all of China" because they consider that a foreign country and always will).
Will Taiwan remain united through a kinetic conflict? I don't know, but I really doubt a peaceful erosion of rights would be much better or even more unified. But truly, I don't know. I have to hope people would. There will always be some dissenting voices and some astroturfed support for China, so I'd have to hope people would continue to (mostly) not fall for it.
I'm not even sure it's possible -- let's say a majority of Taiwanese actually accept this bullshit treaty (because that's what it would be -- not decorative so much as utter horseshit), even just to avoid a hot war. Still, not everyone will and just as there are deep blues who would go insane if Taiwan were to declare independence in name and slough off the ROC name, there are deep greens who would go full guerilla and start some violence.
It doesn't even matter if that would make things better or worse -- it would happen. On what scale, I don't know, but the possibility of a totally peaceful destruction of Taiwan I think is...not possible.
Walking around looking at Taiwanese faces, the thought of the strife (much of it internal) and suffering a hot war would bring here is sad and sickening.
To withstand a hot conflict Taiwan needs basically two robust forces, one external, one internal. (It could very well conflagrate into WW3, but staying within the region for now…)
Externally, Taiwan needs a strong international alliance: Key countries being the US, and the two most proximal neighbors, Japan and the Philippines; plus support in some form from all the anti-China rivals -- Vietnam, India, Australia (SKorea has NKorea to worry about); and the west in general. Coordinated with Taiwan, a credible defence arrangement should be enough to deter everything but the most desperate, or stupid, CCP attempt to invade. That’s option number one; basically the so-called “status quo”, though it requires constant upgrading of forces and postures.
If that external defence is breached, then Taiwan would need to mount a staunch on-island defence. To do this, it would need to be united under strong leadership, have large stocks of durable supplies (food, water, arms, medical, etc), and have a well-trained military and civilian population. I don’t think any of these exist right now, not to the level needed.
At the moment, judging by the vote split at the national level, one of the first things Taiwan would have to deal with at the start of a cross-strait conflict, would be the very real potential of a civil war, among factions arguing over what course of action to take. Between the capitulate-early faction and the hard-core independence fighters, I think the mass of people in between would be coaxed to capitulate early, mostly because they’re not well-prepared to endure a fight. Yeah, they’d lose democracy for a very long time, whatever a settlement says on paper. Then the capitulators would be forced to help hunt down those who remain hard-core, to imprison them under the PRC anti-sedition law, giving the hard-core even less to lose…making them more radical…making it easier to portray them as dangerous…
So…to prevent early capitulation, the population in general needs more training and preparation – including psychological prep…otherwise known as indoctrination…which is where totalitarian societies have an advantage…can a democracy remain a democracy while indoctrinating citizens?...If there’s a true hard-core independence faction, they’d have cells of secretive, survivalist mountaineer fighters digging bunkers and tunnels in all the naturally defensible nooks and crannies of the island.
I’ve digressed into speculation…I just hope the “status quo” holds.
I agree generally, but will nitpick "lose democracy for a very long time". They'll lose it forever. I mean, sure, one day maybe China will democratize but it won't be soon, and would definitely be so far into the future that it's not even a realistic hope for their grandchildren. That's essentially forever, for those living today. They're also condemning their children.
I have to hope that people will continue to understand this (it seemed so clear after 2014 and 2019) and realize that capitulation is essentially sending their own children to hell. Maybe they can endure it for themselves, but future generations deserve better.
This also terrifies me because not only am I one of the hard-core independence supporters -- I will never, ever personally capitulate to China, not that it matters as I can't vote -- but a lot of my friends are. More than a few of my friends would be imprisoned or more likely, disappeared and killed. Close friends, too. So this isn't abstract for me: actual people I know and care about WOULD die. Perhaps myself included, but as a white American I'm more likely to just be kicked out. Not saying it's right, just being realistic.
By "if there's a true hard-core independence faction", do you mean now, or in this hypothetical scenario? There *is* one now. I don't know how hardcore they'd go if an invasion actually happened.
Donovan Smith recently had a good article about this, and how Tsai should have done more to get preparations ready for a possible invasion scenario. It was a real threat even then. Lai seems to be taking it more seriously, but it's difficult with the legislature and local governments divided. I do also know they're taking two things very seriously: both civilian resilience, and improving the training during military service. I've actually recommended that if conscription is going to be a thing at all (I wish it didn't have to be), it should include women too, but that would be very hard to sell politically. There is no good reason why Taiwanese women can't also spend a year learning how to use weapons -- especially guns -- sail ships, fly planes, grow food, provide first aid, various survival skills etc. And I don't just mean those who sign up.
In a society with no threat I'm ethically against national service, but I understand why Taiwan has it. So it needs to be improved, and should include women. The former is underway (I do know this for a fact) but the latter won't be.
I've also suggested survival skills classes for civilians as part of civil resilience.
I also hope the status quo holds, not because I don't want independence as the Republic of Taiwan (I do), but because a war would be horrifying, yet capitulating is NOT AN OPTION. I realize I get no say in this, but to me it's not an option for the reasons above.
So I also hope if the status quo doesn't hold, that Taiwanese voters understand that capitulation would actually be worse long-term.
I do think that while the DPP is far from perfect -- really, quite far from it -- they're the best people to ensure it holds. The KMT talks about peace and dialogue with China, but the DPP has been consistently clear that they're open to it as well. The KMT, however, would not only happily sell out Taiwan to China, they are actively working towards that right now (see my recent post on dodgy ties between Luo Chih-chiang and CCP shell media). At least the DPP would put up a fight.
I pie-in-the-sky dream of China democratizing one day this century. 2089! Yeah, dreaming can be dangerous when stakes are high.
About “true hard-core independence faction", by “true” I mean putting “money where the mouth is”, ie, supporting words with actions and actually going out and physically prepping bunkers, tunnels, dehydrated food stocks, ammo dumps, undergoing weapons training, practicing sabotage techniques, knowing the landscape, good water sources, foraging, learning bare bones communication, coordination, gaming out scenarios, long survival courses, the whole deal. I don’t know about the company you keep, but if _I_ know about any such cells, then they aren’t secretive enough and some PRC mole knows too, and they’re dead before they can make a dent. IMO a true hard-core would not be thinking about staying in cities, when there is all this Formosan wilderness right there.
But now I’m dreaming again, about a paramilitary force. The Ministry of Agriculture might be asking to see permits, not to mention laws against keeping shelves full of ordnance…so what about a regular army unit doing these things? Does that exist? If not, WHY NOT?
Better military training and civilian resistance is essential. About the latter, I know people who’ve taken part in some training and seen some video clips, but I don’t FEEL enough of it. It should be **palpable** -- part of democratic Taiwan’s culture. Just for starters, say, among all the hip-hop dance groups around the National Theater every weekend, turn just ONE of them into a mock first aid course, visible every weekend doing their thing with an air of seriousness around them. No rah-rah, just getting the skills down. Using the little pumps squirting red dye. Not joking here.
Agree 100% with you on training women; leaving half the population undertrained, and more dependent, is stupid. Inefficient. Illogical! Everyone should be able to do something (the more skills the better) for anyone else. I think historically, forces that integrate women in combat do well, but I’d have to look that up.
All of these measures would make the population more resistant to capitulating.
Edit: About keeping any military or other secrets from China, it’s futile. China is all too ready to shower senior army personnnel with cash and honey pots to betray Taiwan. So resistance must be broad based. (No pun intended. And, still build those mountain redoubts.) Let the CCP observe the practical and concrete training of the population in general, and realize it’s an expression of how deeply disliked they are in Taiwan. That should warm their hearts.
I don’t know if this has already been officially stated, but Taiwan also has to repeatedly make clear to China and the world two things that will happen once they attack: 1) Taiwan will declare a new official name, signifying its de jure independence and 2) Any target in China will become open to attack by forces protecting Taiwan. (This would have to be done selectively so as to turn China’s population against, rather than virulently in favor of, the CCP. The CCP’s biggest fear is the population it tries to govern.)
I don't have answers to those questions, though I do know people who know things. It's probably better that I don't know, because as you said -- if you know, then China knows. I know there are foreigners who are quietly preparing to be able to stay in Taiwan and help where they can. And I have Taiwanese friends reading up on revolutionary tactics that might help a smaller disenfranchised group win over a bigger, better-resourced enemy. If there are preppers in the woods, I really have no idea. I know there are people who would fight and die, but I don't know what their resources are like.
I too have thought about how NOT to be in a city, and what I would need to do to be self-sufficient, connect to the outside world but otherwise live without comforts, and how I can help. I've considered taking relevant courses in outdoor survival, learning to shoot, basic medical care, growing food etc. I have another friend who took a permaculture class more or less for this reason. So it's been on my mind, but I don't really know where to start and, not to mince words, but I'm a forty-something woman with diabetes and a bad knee.Not exactly guerrilla shock troop material. I did grow up in the countryside though so I'm not a helpless lifelong city-dweller.
I think the government itself should be offering these opportunities to people, to survive, give medical care, grow and forage food, use and repair weapons, live resourcefully, avoid the enemy.
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